1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	340455	King of the Valley	Current	126	7.13	5.56	2.30
			Estimated	1,000	7.40	6.18	2.33

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
A long time ago in a land far, far away, there was a thriving valley with various inhabitants. They wandered aimlessly in need of a true leader to guide them. Are you the king who will lead them the way? Do you have a strategy to acquire their trust, and are you cunning enough to challenge other would-be kings? They cannot be trusted as they will do anything to claim the crown you deserve. No sacrifice is too big or small for them. They may think being king is as easy as summoning subjects to their side, squeezing the gold from their pockets through taxes, and arranging some marriages, but only a true king will be able to keep up the morale and lead the inhabitants through the ever-changing circumstances in the valley and the hills. In King of the Valley, you must obtain the highest reputation of all the kingly contenders, with reputation being determined by influence, bonuses, and gold. To set up, lay out 25 of the character tiles from age I in a 5x5 grid, with each king starting on a different tile and with 2 gold in their reserve. On a turn, you can first choose to acquire a tile from the "hill" for the listed gold price; the hill has two columns of six characters, with the characters costing 2-10 gold based on their height on the hill. When you acquire a tile, add it to your personal castle board. Characters have 0-5 influence, with the 1-5 influence characters being sorted by type and with the 0-value jester standing in for a character of your choice (but still being worth 0 influence). You then move your king orthogonally or diagonally, stopping on the character tile you want to claim; alternatively, you can move across 2-3 identical characters in a line, stopping on the space after them in order to collect them all! Add these character tile(s) to your castle board, and if you now have face-up characters with influence from 1-5, you can turn them face down to claim a kingdom bonus of points and coins. To end your turn, refill empty spaces in the grid by choosing one column of the hill, then drawing characters from it as needed to fill empty spaces. Finally, draw character tiles from the stack to refill the hill, thereby giving everyone a glimpse at what can come on the playing area in the future, not to mention what can be acquired if you have enough coins in hand. Specialist characters show up on the board — the priest, the wizard, and the tax collector — with you receiving immediate bonus actions should you collect them. When the hill can't be fill completely, the game ends. All characters in your collection add their influence points to your score. Collecting 3-5 knights in the same order grants you bonus points, as does each pairing of a farmer with a farmer's wife. Add any kingdom bonuses to your sum, then whoever has the highest reputation wins.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/340455

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to King of the Valley? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to King of the Valley. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to King of the Valley. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	340455	King of the Valley	1.00	5.56	7.13	2.33	126
1	2020	289081	The Grand Carnival	0.85	6.03	7.63	2.20	581
2	2016	200853	Habitats	0.83	6.30	7.34	2.29	1,346
3	2012	107635	Kairo	0.78	5.66	6.55	2.55	339
4	2018	246639	Patchwork Express	0.76	5.96	7.00	1.56	791
5	2014	157354	Five Tribes	0.76	7.64	7.78	2.85	35,899
6	1967	847	Feudal	0.75	5.72	6.07	2.31	1,453
7	2020	284742	Honey Buzz	0.75	6.82	7.80	2.72	2,565
8	1980	3036	Kung Fu 2100	0.75	5.53	6.27	1.60	84
9	2019	281259	The Isle of Cats	0.74	7.52	7.87	2.31	13,443
10	2020	293556	Gloomy Graves	0.73	5.59	6.75	1.71	147
11	2020	306040	Merv: The Heart of the Silk Road	0.73	6.74	7.65	3.45	2,491
12	2020	300327	The Castles of Tuscany	0.73	6.50	7.32	2.18	2,218
13	2020	300583	Village Green	0.72	6.08	7.09	1.90	1,062
14	2019	269603	Minecraft: Builders & Biomes	0.72	6.26	7.04	1.90	1,850
15	2020	292333	Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition	0.72	5.53	7.11	1.50	35
16	2019	276498	Paris: La Cité de la Lumière	0.71	6.63	7.41	2.04	2,829
17	2016	210113	Tank Chess	0.71	5.61	7.53	2.83	145
18	1985	724	Chill: Black Morn Manor	0.71	5.59	5.99	2.06	422
19	2003	6977	Mission Command Land	0.70	5.49	5.47	1.40	204
20	2017	240415	Desktop HEBOCON Battle Kit	0.70	5.53	6.74	2.00	41
21	2019	294230	Remember Our Trip	0.70	5.89	7.47	2.15	429
22	2020	317299	Loco Momo	0.69	5.64	6.44	1.22	321
23	1999	88	Torres	0.69	6.81	7.10	2.86	9,147
24	1997	42	Tigris & Euphrates	0.69	7.53	7.70	3.50	26,592
25	2010	73171	Earth Reborn	0.69	6.85	7.64	3.90	3,307

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to King of the Valley while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	340455	King of the Valley	5.56	1.00	5.56	7.13	2.33	126
1	2014	157354	Five Tribes	5.77	0.76	7.64	7.78	2.85	35,899
2	2019	281259	The Isle of Cats	5.54	0.74	7.52	7.87	2.31	13,443
3	2016	200853	Habitats	5.22	0.83	6.30	7.34	2.29	1,346
4	1997	42	Tigris & Euphrates	5.21	0.69	7.53	7.70	3.50	26,592
5	2020	289081	The Grand Carnival	5.15	0.85	6.03	7.63	2.20	581
6	2020	284742	Honey Buzz	5.10	0.75	6.82	7.80	2.72	2,565
7	2020	306040	Merv: The Heart of the Silk Road	4.90	0.73	6.74	7.65	3.45	2,491
8	2014	163412	Patchwork	4.86	0.65	7.52	7.63	1.62	54,613
9	2016	196340	Yokohama	4.85	0.65	7.48	7.84	3.29	10,154
10	2011	84876	The Castles of Burgundy	4.74	0.59	8.01	8.13	3.00	52,346
11	1999	88	Torres	4.73	0.69	6.81	7.10	2.86	9,147
12	2020	300327	The Castles of Tuscany	4.72	0.73	6.50	7.32	2.18	2,218
13	2019	276498	Paris: La Cité de la Lumière	4.72	0.71	6.63	7.41	2.04	2,829
14	2010	73171	Earth Reborn	4.70	0.69	6.85	7.64	3.90	3,307
15	2002	2955	Mexica	4.65	0.68	6.79	7.24	2.70	5,381
16	2018	246639	Patchwork Express	4.52	0.76	5.96	7.00	1.56	791
17	2019	269603	Minecraft: Builders & Biomes	4.49	0.72	6.26	7.04	1.90	1,850
18	2014	164338	The Golden Ages	4.45	0.69	6.49	7.27	2.89	2,244
19	2012	107635	Kairo	4.43	0.78	5.66	6.55	2.55	339
20	2018	244049	Forum Trajanum	4.42	0.68	6.53	7.27	3.49	2,476
21	1989	699	HeroQuest	4.40	0.65	6.81	7.16	2.15	11,893
22	2020	300583	Village Green	4.37	0.72	6.08	7.09	1.90	1,062
23	2014	164153	Star Wars: Imperial Assault	4.33	0.56	7.71	7.99	3.30	22,290
24	1967	847	Feudal	4.32	0.75	5.72	6.07	2.31	1,453
25	2020	283155	Calico	4.28	0.58	7.34	7.72	2.20	10,473

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	340455	King of the Valley	The Game Master BV	Hans van Tol	David Cochard	Deduction		Grid Movement
			FoxGames			Economic		Hidden Victory Points
			HUCH!			Medieval		Market
			Origames			Puzzle		Modular Board
								Set Collection
								Square Grid
								Tile Placement
								Variable Set-up

Individual Game Analysis